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Before the release of CPI in the United States, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 86.1%. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged by December was 13.9%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points was 86.1%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 10.6%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 69.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 20.2%.Analyst Anstey: Today's CPI data will hardly change anyone's prospects. However, those who still think that the Fed will remain inactive next week may reconsider, because inflation is not worse than expected. This seems to give the green light to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 18th.Russian central bank survey: the average key interest rate in 2024 is expected to be 17.5%, compared with the previous forecast of 17.3%. The average key interest rate in 2025 is expected to be 21.3%, compared with the previous forecast of 18%.

Joshua Benjo, a well-known AI expert: Artificial intelligence may "turn against human beings". According to a report on the website of the American Consumer News and Business Channel on November 21st, Joshua Benjo, a well-known computer scientist, a pioneer of artificial intelligence, warned against the potential negative impact of this emerging technology on society and called for in-depth research to reduce risks. (Reference message)Polish and Estonian Prime Ministers held talks to discuss regional security and other issues. Polish Prime Minister Tusk met with Estonian Prime Minister michal in Warsaw on December 11th, local time. The two countries discussed the issues of aid to Ukraine, regional security and cooperation, and Poland's taking over the rotating presidency of the European Union. Michal pointed out at a news conference that it is necessary for NATO member countries to spend more than 2.5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, and Estonia has already exceeded 2% of GDP in 2022. Michal pointed out that NATO countries are still lacking in air defense and ammunition production capacity, which must be solved quickly. Tusk said that he shared the same attitude with michal on regional security and aid to Ukraine, and he hoped that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could be ended in a way acceptable to all. (CCTV News)Zamrazilova, Deputy Governor of the Czech Central Bank: I hope to see the inflation rate drop in January, and then I can start to consider further relaxing interest rates.

The US CPI data is in line with expectations, and the euro zone bonds are basically flat.After the publication of CPI in the United States, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 97.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 71.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27.1%.When the Fed became cautious about cutting interest rates, the inflation rate in the United States rose to 2.7% in November, and the inflation rate in the United States rose to 2.7% in November, which was in line with economists' expectations and higher than the level of 2.6% in October. The data highlights people's concerns about sticky inflation after inflation rose in October. It is widely expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time in a row next week, but the pace of interest rate cuts next year is uncertain, because the Fed is striving to achieve the dual mission of keeping the inflation rate close to 2% and maintaining a healthy labor market. As interest rates reach a more "neutral" level, that is, high enough to curb inflation but low enough to protect the labor market, officials have discussed slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts. They say that if we act too fast, inflation may stay above the 2% target, but if we act too slowly, the unemployment rate may rise sharply.